Advantage Play: Calculating UX Wheel Poker
Four Ultimate X Wheel poker machines were just installed near me. That means I need to figure out the break point where they go positive.
You can find my “quick” analysis on Ultimate X Wheel Poker below. This table represents the lowest point where the game goes positive. I used the same formula on this game that I used for all the other multiplier video poker games on this site: Total Return = Pay Table RTP * Next Hand X’s / # of 5 coin bets.
I did not have the time to take a close look at the pay tables (yet), but since those can vary from machine to machine, I will use the standard 95% payback assumption I’ve used on other multiplier games I’ve covered.
Based on all that, here is the spot the game goes positive.
Expect high variance with this game.
I have a few open items with this game related to the wheel that I’ve not figured out, and I probably won’t give much thought to moving forward.
1) I know the wheel is heavily weighted towards multipliers but I don’t know exactly what the average value of that wheel is. I suspect the multiplier value is in the neighborhood of 17X-18X based on very limited data, so that could be way off. I don’t think this matters much to a vulture unless someone leaves a game before spinning the wheel. While that sounds very unlikely, the public never ceases to amaze me. Even if someone does walk away without spinning the wheel, in all cases, a single wheel spin would make the game positive for the next spin if the data I have is anywhere close.
2) Unless I want to learn a whole new strategy for this game (and I don’t)... A full house occurs about 1 out of 87 hands in non-wild games and straight flush occurs even less often in wild games. Using the higher frequency occurrence of the full house, you only have about a 1.2% chance of making another wheel spin on the next hand. With that said, it would only be worth changing the positive number from the table above on the 10 play version. If I’m in a gambling mood, I might consider a 23 on a 10 play but it’s a real thin edge.
On the other hand if I start seeing coin prizes hit on that wheel with any frequency, that could change things. I can always come back and re-think this game, but for now I’m done…
Considering how high the playable numbers are, I’d be surprised if anyone finds enough plays on this game to even make checking the machine worth much. I’m going to put this game right next to UX Spin poker near the bottom of my vulture-able list.